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All About Futures

What are futures?
Futures
are derivatives. These are securities whose value depends on the value
of an underlying asset, which could be a commodity or a financial
instrument. A future or a forward contract is an agreement between two
parties to buy or sell an underlying asset at a certain time in the
future for a certain price, which is fixed now. One party buys the
asset and the other party sells the asset.

What are some commonly used derivatives?
Some commonly used derivatives are forward contracts, futures, options, swaps and warrants

What is meant by a contingent claim?
A
contingent claim is another word for a derivative security. It is so
called because they are claims whose values are contingent (i.e.,
depend on) on the value of the underlying asset.

What is the nature of the underlying asset?
Underlying assets can be of several types, such as :

Commodities.
Agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, or rice.
Animal products such as pork.
Metals such as iron or gold.
Shares, currencies and bonds.
Share indices.

The first
two asset types have a physical existence in some form. The last are
merely are numbers calculated on the basis of a basket of share prices
and have no physical existence.

Are futures and forward contracts the same?
No.
Forward contracts are contracts entered into privately between two
parties as above. Futures contracts are contracts that are traded on an
exchange.

What are the differences between futures contracts and forward contracts?
In quite a few ways, futures contracts are superior to forward contracts. Some of them are :

No counter-party risk : Since the
exchange takes the responsibility of settling every trade, each party
to the contract will have his portion settled, irrespective of whether
the other party settles or not. But in forward contracts, the failure
of one party to the contract can lead to non-settlement of the contract
itself.
Liquidity : Since futures are
traded on an exchange, they are very liquid. It is possible to get in
and out of futures positions pretty fast. This feature does not exist
in forward contracts since they are not traded on any exchange.
Uniformity : Futures contracts
are standardised in terms of the size of the contract, the delivery
date and the quality of the commodity itself. Such standardisation does
not exist in the case of forward contracts.

Still,
forward contracts are popular because they can be structured in a
manner to suit both parties to the contract in terms of size of
contract or maturity date or quality / nature of commodity or financial
asset. In fact, the forward market for foreign currencies dominated by
banks is the largest financial market in the world.
Another
difference is that in the case of futures, the exchange marks to market
the contract on a daily basis. So each of the parties to a contract
either receives or pays out the difference. But with forwards, there is
no such mark to market arrangement and all differences are settled at
the maturity of the contract.
Let us illustrate this with an
example : Mr. Sharma buys a futures contract on the exchange which
entitles him to receive 100 shares of ABC Industries three months hence
paying a price of Rs 350 per share. Simultaneously, the counter-party
to the contract, Mr. Tripathi has an obligation to deliver 100 shares
of ABC three months hence and receive Rs 350 per share. Given the
current market price of ABC is Rs. 350, we could have three situations
tomorrow:

The price moves up to Rs 360 :
Then Mr. Sharma will receive Rs 1,000 (100 shares multiplied by
difference of Rs 10 per share) from the exchange and Mr. Tripathi will
have to pay Rs 1,000 to the exchange.
The price falls to Rs 340 : Then
Mr. Sharma will have to pay Rs 1,000 (100 shares multiplied by
difference of Rs. 10 per share) to the exchange and Mr. Tripathi will
receive Rs 1,000 from the exchange.
The price remains unchanged at Rs 350 : Then neither Mr. Sharma nor Mr. Tripathi will have to pay or receive anything.

Such marking of the contract to changes in market price does not happen with forward contracts.

What are financial futures?
Financial futures are futures where the underlying asset is a financial instrument such as a share, currency or an index.

Is there a difference between financial futures and commodity futures, other than the nature of the underlying asset?
Commodity
futures are settled partly by cash and partly by delivery of the
concerned commodity. Financial futures are mostly settled in cash, by
paying out or receiving differences and rarely by delivery.

What is meant by standardisation of futures?
The exchange standardises futures contracts in terms of the following features :

Value or size : All futures contracts based on a particular underlying instrument, say the S&P CNX Nifty, would be of the same size.
Month of delivery : Usually
90-day contracts expire in March, June, September and December.
Together with the month of delivery, the days on which delivery can be
made are also fixed, if possible.
Range of fluctuation : It is the
tick or amount by which price of futures contract can move up or down.
For example, in a futures contract, the tick could be Rs 0.25 or 25
paise.

In the case of commodity futures, the exchange also specifies the product quality and the delivery location.

What is meant by ‘going long’ or ‘going short’ in a futures contract?
The buyer of a future contract is said to ‘go long’ the future, whereas the seller is said to ‘go short’ that future.

What do price changes of a futures contract reflect?
The
price changes of the future will reflect the price changes of the
underlying instrument (share or index). With a long position, the value
of the position rises as the price of the underlying instrument rises
and it falls as this price falls. With a short position, a loss ensues
if the price of the underlying instrument rises, while profits are
generated if this price falls.

How is the performance of the parties to a futures contract guaranteed?
Clearing
houses at futures exchanges guarantee the performance of the parties to
a futures contract. This is accomplished by a process called novation,
wherein the clearing house functions as a seller to every buyer and a
buyer to every seller. As a result, after a trade is concluded, the two
parties to the trade need not interact with each other at all. The
clearing house settles each leg of the trade independently. In the case
of commodity futures, clearing houses also facilitate settlement by
delivery.

How do clearing houses guarantee trades?
Each
clearing house will have a mix of strategies to ensure that, even in
the most volatile of markets, each party to a contract fulfils its
obligation. These are accomplished by a strict system of initial and
mark to market margins imposed on the members of the clearing house,
who settle the trades with the clearing house.
In addition to
this, most clearing houses also get themselves insured against failure
of their members and build up contingency funds from contributions by
their members to safeguard against large scale failures.

Is futures trading meant for someone like me?
Futures
trading is very useful to three categories of people. If your investing
style matches any of the three following categories, you would find
futures trading useful :

Speculators :
A speculator is
a person who takes a view on the value of the futures contract and
takes a position in the instrument. For example, a speculator might
think that ABC prices would go up from their existing level. Hence he
will go long (or buy) ABC futures. Or a speculator might think that XYZ
shares would go down from their current price levels. Hence he will go
short (or sell) XYZ futures.
A speculator would use futures
instead of taking a position in the underlying asset because futures
give cash flow efficiency. Instead of paying the value of the
underlying asset up front, only the initial margin is paid, with daily
profits and losses being settled on a day to day basis. Thus futures
are a highly geared alternatives to cash market positions.
You could speculate, too. But remember; speculate only to the extent that you can afford to lose. Never over extend yourself.
Arbitrageurs :
An arbitrageur is a person who takes advantage of price differentials between two markets and makes profit in the process.
For
example say ABC shares are available on the BSE for Rs 300 and a
one-month futures is quoting at Rs 320. The arbitrageur will buy ABC
shares on the BSE and sell the one-month futures contract. On maturity
of the futures contract, he will deliver the ABC shares and receive Rs
320, thus booking a profit of Rs 20 per share. An arbitrageur takes a
covered position, in that he is not exposed to price risks in either
market. You too could arbitrage between the two markets. However, such
opportunities are available for very short periods of time and should
be taken advantage of quickly.
Hedgers :
A hedger is a
person who has a position in an underlying asset and takes an opposite
position in the futures market to protect his price. Say you have a
portfolio of shares. Current market valuations are pretty good, but you
do not want to sell say because of tax reasons. You are, however,
afraid that the market may crash and your portfolio value would come
down. You can do hedging of the portfolio by selling index futures of
equivalent value. If the market falls down, the profit on the index
futures contract will offset the loss on your portfolio. If the market
goes up, the loss on the futures contract will be offset by the profit
on your portfolio.
What is a spot price in a futures market?
The
spot price is the price of the underlying commodity in the spot or cash
market. In this market, settlement takes place in 48 hours.

What is a delivery price in a futures contract?
The specified price in a futures contract is called the delivery price.

What is a forward price in a futures contract?
This
is defined as the delivery price that would make the contract value
zero. At the time of entering into the futures contract, the forward
price and the delivery price are equal. As time passes, the forward
price and delivery prices tend to diverge. The delivery price remains
the same, while the forward price varies with the maturity of the
contract.

What is the maturity date of a futures contract?
The
maturity date of a futures contract is the date on which the buyer and
seller have to settle their obligations to the exchange.

What is the maturity value or terminal value of a long position in a futures contract?
The
value at maturity or terminal value of a long position is defined as
the difference between the spot price on the day of maturity and the
delivery price. That is, ST – D, where D is the delivery price and ST
is the spot price at maturity. If the terminal value is negative, it
indicates that the buyer of the contract has incurred a loss.

What is the maturity value of a short position in a futures contract?
The
value at maturity of terminal value of a short position is the
difference between the delivery price and the spot price at maturity.
That is, D – ST, where D is the delivery price and ST is the spot price
at maturity. If the terminal value is negative, it indicates that the
seller of the contract has incurred a loss.

What is an index future?
Futures
contracts whose value depends on the value of an underlying share index
are known as index futures. Each share trades at a specific price at
any point of time. But there is a need to represent the price of the
market as a whole. This is done by identifying a basket of shares that
s representative of this market, and tracking their consolidated value
in terms of their base value. The value of this basket of shares is the
value of the share index comprising these shares.

How do investors benefit from index futures?
As
investors are always affected by fluctuations in the market index,
hedging using index futures is more effective for an investor rather
than hedging with a (single) share future.

Where can I trade in futures in India?
You
can trade index and stock futures in Indian markets. Both the Bombay
Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange offer trading in futures
linked to the value of their underlying. Besides, the BSE Sensex and
the S&P CNX Nifty, you can also trade in NSE Bankex and NSE IT
indices.

What is a futures contract cycle?
Contract
cycles are trading periods for which futures contracts remain active.
For example, a 3-month futures contract would come into existence on
1st January and would expire on 31st March. On 1st April, this contract
would cease to exist, and the next contract with expiration on 30th
June would start trading.

What is a calendar spread?
A
calendar spread is a position where one contract cycle of a future is
hedged by an offsetting future position of different contract cycle in
the same underlying asset. For example, a short position in three month
index futures contracts may be hedged by a long position in six month
index futures contracts.

What is a daily price movement limit?
Daily
price movement limits are the limits on the extent to which futures
prices are allowed to vary from day to day. These limits are prescribed
by the exchanges to prevent large price movements due to excessive
speculation.

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